BizPal case study · Battery recycling plant

Seeing the business behind the numbers

I had a US$100 million decision on my desk and a forecast full of numbers. This is how I finally saw the business behind them.

US$100.3Mproposed investment
US$55.4Mprojected revenue a year
7.2 yrsprojected payback
See how it works ↓

An anonymised case study. Figures are adjusted, and projections are not guarantees.

1
My job

Management wanted a yes or no. I had to explain why.

Should we build a plant that recycles old electric-vehicle batteries? Our technology partner had built a solid financial model. My job was to understand it well enough to explain it to the board in plain words.

On my desk
Build a battery recycling plant?
InvestmentUS$100.3M
Model byOur technology partner
I needA clear yes or no, with reasons
2
Before

All I could see were the results.

The numbers looked good. But a spreadsheet shows the answers, not the plant behind them.

What the business case showed me
Investment
US$100.3M
Value created (NPV)
+US$42.4M
Return (IRR)
16.0 %
Money back in
7.2 years

Cash flow per year (US$M)

Where the money comes from

Revenue: US$55.4M a year

Where the money goes

Running costs: US$24.4M a year

The questions I knew the board would ask

Revenue is US$55.4M a year. Where does it come from?
The model says 54% of each battery module becomes “black mass”. What does that mean on the plant floor?
Why do we buy black mass from outside when we also make it ourselves?
If one number changes, which other numbers move with it?

I understood the answer. I just couldn’t show anyone how we got there.

3
Then we tried the BizPal way

We drew the plant, box by box.

Each box is something real: a machine, a product, a cost, a team. Lines show what flows from one to the next, all the way into the accounts. For the first time, everyone was looking at the same picture.

Plant floor Sales Costs People Machines Accounts
1,234 in the original map1,234 worked out from the business case1,234 assumed by BizPalMoney is per year, at year-3 prices. t = tonnes.

Every empty box became a simple question

Missing inputs are normal in any model. On the map, they just stand out. For this case study we filled them in: blue numbers come from the business case, amber ones are our own assumptions.

4
After

Now every dollar has a story.

Follow one year of batteries through the plant. At each step you can see what goes in, what comes out, and what it costs.

Cost share = part of yearly running costs. Labour, maintenance and overhead (about 19%) are shared across all steps. t = tonnes per year.

5
Checking the numbers

So I checked one number myself.

Black mass is the valuable powder the plant makes. I started with tonnes on the plant floor and worked my way up to dollars.

ABattery modules coming in each year7,475 t
BTimes 54% yield = black mass we make ourselves~4,040 t
CThe chemical plant needsSo we must buy the difference (C − B)5,175 t
DGap to buy, times US$4,700 per tonne~1,140 t × US$4,700~US$5.4M
EWhat the model says we spend on black mass23% of US$24.4M. The small difference is the model’s 2% yearly price rise.~US$5.6M
FRevenue for each tonne of black mass we processUS$55.4M ÷ 5,175 t. This is sales per tonne, not profit. Costs still have to come off.~US$10,700

Try it: what if the shredder gets less out?

Move the slider and watch the cost change. It’s a “what if”, not a forecast.

Black mass we make
4,037 t
Black mass we must buy
1,139 t
Cost of buying it
US$5.35M
Plan
US$5.35M
This is the plan.
The map also sparked a good conversation. We drew the plant from whole battery packs, while the business case starts at modules. The casings hold about 1,120 t of aluminium and 280 t of copper a year. That could mean around US$3.4M in sales, but taking packs apart costs money too. A good question to explore together in the next phase.
6
What changed

BizPal connects what happens on the ground to our finance.

My questionSpreadsheet on its ownSpreadsheet + BizPal map
Where does revenue come from?One total and a pie chartEach product traced back to the plant step that makes it
Are the assumptions realistic?Buried in spreadsheet cellsShown on the box they belong to, in plain units
What is still missing?Open inputs are hard to spotEmpty boxes stand out and become a team checklist
Can I check the numbers myself?Walk through it with the modellerTrace key figures step by step and test the assumptions
What if something changes?Rerun and recheck the modelChange an input and see the linked outputs update

Now finance, operations and our partner look at the same picture. I don’t just read the forecast. I understand it, and I can explain it.

Book a 30-minute model walk-throughor email support@bizpal.tech